You’ve probably heard the stat that you have a one in 9.2 QUINTILLION chance of filling out a perfect NCAA tournament bracket. And while that’s technically true, it’s not QUITE accurate.
That number is based on you flipping a coin to predict every game. In reality, there are certain things that are almost certain to happen in the tournament…like the four number one seeds beating the four number 16 seeds.
And, if you follow basketball during the year, you can make educated predictions about other games too. Upsets will always happen, and that’s where you’ll need some luck to kick in, but all in all, your odds of a perfect bracket aren’t THAT bad.
According to ESPN, if you’ve got some knowledge about college basketball, your odds of a perfect bracket are about one in one or two billion.
Those are still crazy odds, but WAY better than one in 9.2 quintillion, right?[FiveThirtyEight]